The (not) coming Apocalypse

Ok, time for a hot take on the election at my special ELECTION 2017 HOT TAKE DESK. And in proper blogging style, we’ll do this in a trite question and answer format

Here I am at my Hot Take Desk

Oh will we?

Yes, we will. Suck it up, buttercup.

Twat.

Shut up, you only exist in a handy question format. Don’t fudge the rules.

So, what’s happening?

The Prime Minister has called for a General Election, which will be held on the 8th June. 

But – WHY?!

Well, that’s a good question with a very easy answer. It’s a bloody good time for her to do that, and because she can. And to preempt the next question, it’s a good time because:

1. May has a slim majority, and the conditions are right to increase that now.
2. The opposition in the form of the Labour Party is an absolute shitshow of the first rank, with a leader that has somehow managed to be amazingly unpopular with his own side, never mind the rest of the country. It’s also a party that has managed to alienate its metropolitan support by being not enough against Brexit, and the same with its traditional support by not being in favour of it enough. 
3. The opposition in the form of UKIP is deceased and its replacement in the form of the Patriotic Alliance is not yet formed
4. Brexit will take longer than two years, and the scheduled election was due to happen just as that process should be coming to a head.
5. Apropos of Brexit, very little of substance will happen over the summer due to elections in France and Germany which may well mean a change in the EU’s position anyway.
6. Also apropos of Brexit, it is possible that the economic position post Brexit will, to coin a phrase, be fucking dreadful, and that’s not a good position to go to the country in.
7. Also apropos Brexit, the amount of legislation that will need to be passed during the process will be momentus and she will need as compliant a legislature as possible – not least because she now needs Parliament’s assent to pass any final deal.
8. The opposition in the form of everybody else will be just as irrelevant.
9. It will help to dampen down any further fervour for Indyref 2 and mean, if an when that happens in 2020, she’s only fighting that battle and not a combined general election/Indyref fight.
10. There is the looming possibility of up to 30 MPs being embroiled in an election expenses scandal.
11. Teresa May wants to win an election and put the whole ‘unelected PM’ stuff to bed. 

Basically, all the big signs point to GO NOW or forever repent. Remember, Gordon Brown had a similar opportunity in 2007 which he ducked and regretted, big time. 

So what will this mean?

Most likely, and right now, a very easy win for the Toried with an increased majority of anything between 70 and 140 seats, depending on which polls you believe. For context their current majority is 12.

That said – a lot can and will happen in the next 8 weeks. At this point in 2010, you wouldn’t have given the Lib Dems great odds anoint being in Government, for example. 

Is there any good news for Labour?

That depends on how you look at things. For Corbynites – not really. If this plays out as expected, he’ll almost certainly be gone on June 9th. So, for non Corbynites, there’ll be a new leader, very likely a fresh approach and a rebuilding process for 2022. Or, fuelled by a grassroots movement among the youth, a Tory expense scandal, more airtime due to May dodging the TV debates and the favourable climate he somehow managed to manufacture during both his selection processes, he’ll be PM.  I’d say it’s currently 70/30 against that happening but you never know.

Right now they’d happily take Mike Yarwood for the job

Lib Dems?
Will have a good one, and pick up quite a few seats – assuming they play a solidly anti Brexit card, and Tim Farron manages to shake off the (slightly unwarranted) ‘homosexuality is a sin’ issues. 

What about the right?
Ah, and here’s the really interesting issue. For a start, don’t bother about UKIP. Assuming Farage doesn’t come back, it’s had it, and without Arron Banks and his money behind it, it can’t finance a proper campaign.  Crucially though, its replacement in the Patriotic Alliance hasn’t been formed – the last I saw, it was going to select policies by ‘direct democracy’ in September and probably start to therefore back the death penalty or something. They don’t have the infrastructure, time or candidates to do this in June. This leaves Farage both a) desperate and b) stranded in Strasbourg doing a talk show and c) sorry, you’ll have to excuse me while I stop laughing. Does he go for it? Does he sit it out till 2020 and possibly watch his only chance at being elected pass by? I’m sure we’ll find out soon.

UPDATE: Farage has refused to stand. I am too busy laughing to comment.

To save you all a picture of Himself, here’s one another giant arse on BBC premises

So is the apocalypse coming?
Right now? No. And is anyone can see further than the next election, they’re a liar. 

Strap in everyone. It’s going to be quite the ride.